Covington Investment Advisors, Inc. Blog

News, Tips, Commentary, etc.

The Armageddonists

Market drawdowns and Bear Markets are a reality when it comes to investing in the equity markets. Part of the reason equity holders receive a higher long-term return over ‘safer’ investments such as bonds is that they take on additional risk and the likelihood that their investment will be negative over stretches of time. Of course no investor wants to experience their investment losing money but this year illustrates perfectly why sticking to a plan and staying invested while owning proven enterprises with strong balance sheets is the prudent approach. This fact of investing is nothing new but the rise of social media and the competitiveness for media headlines since 2010 have given way to a flood of negative market calls which naturally appeals to human negativity bias and our survivorship instincts. This appeal strategy has worked in part because the flood of calls followed two of the deepest bear...
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Promising Vaccine Data

Early last week Pfizer announced data on the clinical trial of their COVID-19 Vaccine candidate which was followed up this week by results from Moderna. It’s easy to see why there is so much excitement over the news as the reported 90 and 94.5 percent effectiveness would put the vaccine on par with the Chickenpox, Mumps, Polio, and Whooping Cough vaccine, and much further ahead than our typical flu vaccine. The logistics of distributing the vaccine will be difficult and likely take months but progress in the development aspect is hopeful. The news comes at the same time that daily cases and hospitalizations are reaching all-time highs. We now have more clarity on what the end destination looks like (vaccine rollout and distribution in second half of 2021) but perhaps less clarity on the path as the spike in cases will weigh on consumer spending in the near-term. At the...
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What to Take Away from Election Night

  Although a presidential winner may not be determined until potentially the end of the week, one takeaway from election night is that the Republicans will likely keep control of the senate, meaning congress will be divided. This could be partially responsible for the large rally in equities following last night’s initial election results. Historically, equity markets have performed well in this environment with stocks being higher in the last ten years with a split congress. Although this election is far from over with a recount/legal challenge likely, a split congress actually adds some clarity as any significant legislative bill for either party will be difficult to pass. This includes a repeal of the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act which we wrote about in June and can be found here.     Commentary Disclosures: Covington Investment Advisors, Inc. prepared this material for informational purposes only and is not an...
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Who's Winning the War on Cash?

Is cash still king? In the world of global payments, not so much anymore. Cash usage is at an all-time low giving way to the transformation to card/digital. According to the latest Nilson report, cash made up less than 20% of US payment volume in 2019 (by total reportable $ value), and is forecasted to fall to less than 15% by 2023. The demise of cash is one of the trends that has been in place for decades but has been accelerated by circumstances arising from COVID-19. The ability for card payments to now be administered in a contactless manner via ‘tap-to-pay’ has been a useful tool for consumers that want to avoid contact at the checkout aisle. Pair this with most consumer spending shifting to Ecommerce channels during quarantine and the demise of cash has been expedited. The scale of the large pure-play payment networks, Visa and Mastercard, is...
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Market Rotation

A historical blend of events in 2020 including the COVID-19 pandemic, shift to a work-from-home economy, and record low interest rates, created the perfect storm for large-cap US tech to structurally outperform the broader market. This outperformance has reversed in recent days with the S&P 500 falling 2.27% and the tech-heavy NASDAQ falling 3.25% last week. This sell-off might have been unavoidable given how stretched some of the valuations for the headline growth names have become relative to their historical ranges and profits began to be taken. It is difficult to see how operationally these tech companies will not continue to benefit as they have for so long, but in the near term a “catch up” rotation could be taking place in the market as the reopening of the economy accelerates, and those industries that have been decimated revert to the mean. In our previous blog post "Air Traffic Data...
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Covington Investment Advisors, Inc.
301 E. Main Street
Ligonier, PA 15658
Phone: 724-238-0151
Fax: 724-238-0148
Email: covington@covingtoninvestment.com