Cases fell slightly from their peak over the weekend but still remain high, particularly in the new “hot spot” states (Arizona, Florida, Texas). Many of these states have now imposed stricter social distancing guidelines after remaining relatively open during the pandemic. Even after 10+ days deaths have still not followed the increase in case load. The lag time window is not an exact number of days but this is still encouraging.

Commentary Disclosures: Covington Investment Advisors, Inc. prepared this material for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided is for general guidance and is not a personal recommendation for any particular investor or client and does not take into account the financial, investment or other objectives or needs of a particular investor or client. Clients and investors should consider other factors in making their investment decision while taking into account the current market environment...

US households have weathered the COVID crisis relatively well up to this point but there are two deadlines coming up for US consumers that could prove to stall out the economic recovery. On July 31^st the extra $600 unemployment benefit per week as part of the CARES act will run out. Unemployment benefits normally last 26 weeks meaning workers who lost their job in March as part of the initial government shutdowns will exhaust all of their unemployment insurance benefits in September. Initial Jobless claims have fallen sharply from their peak but returning citizens to work may take longer than most are currently expecting. If more fiscal support is not extended to households by keeping the expanded unemployment benefits or implementing a fresh round of stimulus the risks will begin to rise that the US will experience a widespread solvency crisis in the household sector.

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Although the nationwide COVID-19 infection rate has tapered off from its peak in April, different regions are at different points in their cycle. Coastal population centers in the Northeast look to be for the most part past their peak, while states in the West and Southern regions have seen their cases tick up recently. A second wave of cases is to be expected as societal activity continues to resume and widespread testing is being implemented. As we mentioned in previous notes, reopening will be a process. The graphic below, sourced from visualcapitalist.com, shows US states sorted by their COVID-19 peak dates. Also included is our US COVID-19 slides from our June Chart Book showing US & global trends.  We will continue to monitor these developments.

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In previous notes we mentioned the possibility of a “Second Wave” of cases popping up as activity resumes and social distancing measures are relaxed. In the last week cases have begun to rise across the nation, particularly in states that until recently have not seen a huge case load from the virus. The increase itself was to be expected but the severity of new case growth is still alarming. On June 26^th the United States reported a new record in daily COVID-19 cases, most of which came from southern and western states. The encouraging sign from recent data is that so far daily deaths have not kept up with the pace of new cases. This implies that treatments are improving dramatically and testing remains robust. Keep in mind new deaths tend to lag cases so we remain hopeful that the fatality rate continues to fall.

Also encouraging is that households have remained very resilient even with very weak macroeconomic/employment data. The majority of consumers (77%) continue to think their own finances will get better or stay the same over the next six months. A lot of this is most likely due to fiscal and monetary assistance which has been very supportive, but a second round of stimulus aide may need to be enacted after current ones run out.

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Now that domestic COVID infection rates are falling, the country is beginning to reopen, and market volatility has subsided, it’s time to look ahead at what will most likely fill the media headlines in the second half of 2020: The Presidential election.

The stock market is surprisingly President-agnostic over the long term. Whether it is a Democrat or Republican, the President does not have too much direct effect on the stock market and companies learn to adapt quickly to the current regime. But this does not mean that the President does not have any influence over market factors. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is much more centric than former liberal contenders Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but he still shares some of the same policy directives such as the push for a return to the more progressive tax policies of the Obama administration. Biden has proposed partially reversing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) passed by the Trump administration in 2017. This tax package in our opinion was a huge boost for American corporations not only because of the increased annual cash flow to the bottom line, but also the competitive dynamic compared to foreign nation’s tax rates. If the Biden Administration were to repeal this tax code it would be a headwind to American businesses. In a note put out over the weekend, Goldman Sachs illustrated how aspects of the TCJA being repealed would potentially affect large-cap companies bottom lines. Goldman’s Baseline forecast for 2021 earnings is slightly higher than consensus EPS estimates but their tax code revisions lowers them to in line with other forecasts.

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How Quickly Will Job Losses Recover?

This year’s huge job losses have almost been entirely attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. This has played a huge role in why forecasters believe the vast majority of the losses will be temporary and the job market will see a quick snap back along with consumer spending buoyed by Ecommerce and fiscal support. The key question is how many of these jobs will never come back. It is also likely that many of these jobs may be restructured from shrinking industries into those which have seen their business growth accelerate due to the virus. These sort of shifts could create a drag on how quickly the nation returns to pre-COVID levels of employment.

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When a pivotal economic event takes place like we are experiencing with the coronavirus pandemic there are certain trends that begin to either arise or quickly accelerate. We think the latter is currently happening with Ecommerce. It is no secret that for many years online shopping has been taking market share from brick and mortar retail. But never before have we seen a scenario where many brick and mortar retails were forced to close shop and deemed “non-essential”, while the large online market places became the essential way for consumers to get the goods they needed. Some could argue that Amazon & Walmart, the two largest Ecommerce retailers, became a staple of national security for their distribution capabilities as citizens are quarantined in their homes.

Much of this gained business is due to many small retailers simply being forced to close for several months, but we think that Ecommerce retailers will keep a good portion of the gained customers even after government shutdowns are lifted. In late April during Microsoft’s Q3 earnings call, CEO Satya Nadella remarked that “We have seen two years’ worth of digital transformation in two months” as Microsoft provides part of the digital infrastructure that Ecommerce retailers use. The graphics below show the dramatic penetration that online sales have reached along with the industry distribution due to this new world of the government forcing citizens to stay in their homes...

_{Federal Reserve Action and Market Volatility} 

In late March the Federal Reserve established the SMCCF (Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility) to support credit to employers and provide liquidity for financial markets.

These new credit facilities gave the Federal Reserve the ability to purchase a larger array of financial products than traditional quantitative easing techniques previously allowed. This included the ability to purchase large amounts of investment grade corporate bonds through SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles).

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One central part of our investment philosophy that we constantly preach is owning companies that have strong balance sheets. What this means is that they have limited liabilities including debt on their balance sheets as well as low working capital requirements. We also look for those companies that have large amounts of cash on their balance sheets. When these strong balance sheets are paired with good capital allocating management teams future returns tend to be strong in both up and down markets. Goldman Sachs recently created “strong balance sheet” and “week balance sheet” baskets of stocks with the former outperforming the latter.

Strong Balance Sheets Outperform Weak Balance Sheets

Source: Goldman Sachs..

What’s Driving Equity Markets

Fiscal response has been impressive and is a primary reason why markets have seen such a sharp rebound from their mid-March lows. In a note that came out last Sunday Goldman Sachs’ economic team wrote that “disposable personal income is likely to register slightly positive growth for the year” attributed to the stimulus payment program rolled out by the government has been so robust. This prediction is predicated on the passage of ‘Phase 4’ of the government's response so not a done deal yet. We think this forecast for disposable income to actually grow in 2020 is on the optimistic side but the fact that the government has seemingly been able to buoy consumer spending is one of the reasons for the sharp bounce back in markets in the last month...

The recent outbreak of the Wuhan Coronavirus is a topic that is at the forefront of all investors’ minds, particularly since information out of China is spotty and the numbers that are supplied by the Chinese government need to be met with high scrutiny. Many would wonder how the world’s second largest economy seemingly grinding to a halt would not cause a market sell off. The market reaction thus far has been relatively muted for several reasons:

The first reason is the derivative effects of the virus that the market is currently pricing in. The market is confident that China will be able to relatively contain the virus before it becomes a full-on Global Pandemic. From what we know now, the mortality rate from Coronavirus is relatively low. Figure 1, located below, plots the Coronavirus mortality statistics against similar outbreaks. As this is being written, only two deaths have been confirmed due to the virus outside of China. In the last few days several Chinese factories have announced that they are resuming operation and workers are returning to facilities. A minor detail that may soften the impact to U.S. companies’ inventories is that the virus outbreak has taken place over the Chinese New Year which is a period where factory output is predicted to be depressed. What the market is then pricing in is that once economic production resumes, economies will undergo a sharp increase in activity to make up for lost production due to the virus. Think of this as a “V-Shape” bounce on a graph.

Another derivative effect that the market is looking forward at is Central Bank stimulus. Just in the last few days the Peoples Bank of China injected 900 billion yuan (about 129 billion U.S. dollars) into the Chinese financial system. U.S. investors are predicting that the impact from the virus, and subsequent impact to GDP, will cause the Federal Reserve to continue to be accommodative via their own repurchase operations and possibly another rate cut. Many companies that have reported numbers in the last month have also given wide forward-guidance due to uncertainty from their supply chain status. This should dampen the shock that investors will get if subsequent numbers are materially impacted from their production or inventory drawdown...

Tariffs have been at the forefront of economic headlines over the past year. If the market headlines do not include “United States Threatens to Impose New Tariffs” then it most likely includes “Markets rise on the hope of a Trade Deal”. This has been the never ending cycle for the last year. On May 10^th, 2019 the Trump Administration announced that a 25% tariff would be placed on an additional $250 Billion worth of Chinese goods being imported to the US. This tariff levying once again shocked markets and sent them trading lower the following week. Although we follow these developments daily it is important to understand the impact that this political risk has on your investments.

Measuring The Effects Of The Trade War

Trade tensions, specifically tariffs, affect the economy and market in a number of different ways. Certain aspects of a ‘Trade War’ are relatively easy to quantify but most are difficult to predict exactly what the long term affects will be. One of the dynamics of tariffs that is relatively easy to quantify is the effect they have on corporate profit margins. According to Empirical Research Partners, the tariffs administered in 2018 decreased S&P profit margins by 2%. This number can be increased now that the amount of goods being penalized has increased. Profit margins are one of the most important factors affecting stock prices so any negative affects to profit margins will translate over to stock prices. Tariffs also affect GDP. The graph below provided by TD Bank illustrates the incremental effects that increasing the amount of goods subject to tariffs has on GDP. Although Q1 2019 GDP of 3.2% was strong, part of this could be contributed to rising inventories. One reason companies may be increasing inventories is to brace for an increase in the cost of imported goods...

The S&P 500 telecommunication sector is getting a new look. For years, the telecom sector has been one of the smallest sectors in the S&P and dominated by two names; Verizon and AT&T. This fall, the telecom sector will be replaced with a new sector labeled as the ‘Communication Services Sector’. As the name implies, the new sector will be more geared towards the way that media is now delivered to customers such as streaming and downloads. Morgan Stanley Capital International, typically abbreviated MSCI, summarized the new sector on their website:

“The last several years have seen an evolution in the way we communicate and access entertainment content and other information. This evolution is a result of integration between telecommunications, media, and internet companies. Companies have further moved in this direction by consolidating through mergers and acquisitions and many now offer bundled services such as cable, internet services, and telephone services. Some of these companies also create interactive entertainment content and aggregate information that is delivered through multiple platforms such as cable and internet, as well as accessed on cellular phones.”

The new sector will be comprised of names pulled from the Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and the old Telecom sector. In addition to AT&T and Verizon, the top 10 holdings in the new Communication Services Index will include three of the four FANG stocks – Facebook, Inc. (FB), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) and Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL). The other notable holdings include Disney (DIS), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Comcast (CMCSA), and Charter Communications (CHTR). "The index has 26 constituents with a total market cap of $2.35 trillion, average market cap of $92.5 billion and median market cap of $34.9 billion as of May 16, 2018," said S&P...