The Fog of War
The situation with Russia/Ukraine remains fluid but we wanted to follow up our note on the ‘Turmoil on the Eastern Front’ from the beginning of the invasion. In that note we showed the historical playbook for geopolitical events, and looking back the market has behaved remarkably in line with those precedents up to this point. But we don't think the situation is completely behind us and want to reiterate that historically what happens after the initial recovery mostly depends on what conditions were like going into the crisis. In today's case that was inflation and changing central bank policy. We continue to think that will be the dominant theme as we go into the second half of 2022.
For more on the geopolitical situation please see Schwab’s latest market perspective below:
Schwab Market Perspective: Fog of War
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